In the media.
Definition of prognose - To establish the prognosis of; to predict (the course of). Also without object: to make a prognosis. prognosis - a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop forecast financial forecast - a forecast of the expected financial position and the results of operations and cash flows based on expected conditions.
This reflects the fact that gas looks a good fit for policy priorities in this region, generating heat, power and mobility with fewer carbon-dioxide CO 2 and pollutant emissions than other fossil fuels, helping to address widespread concerns over air quality.
But the competitive landscape is formidable, not just due to coal but also to renewables, which in some countries become a cheaper form of new power generation than gas by the mids, pushing gas-fired plants towards a balancing rather than a baseload role. Efficiency policies also play a part in constraining gas use: A new gas order is emerging, with US LNG helping to accelerate a shift towards a more flexible, liquid, global market.
Ensuring that gas remains affordable and secure, beyond the current period of ample supply and lower prices, is critical for its long-term prospects. Gas supply also becomes more diverse: Price formation is based increasingly on competition between various sources of gas, rather than indexation to oil. With destination flexibility, hub-based pricing and spot availability, US LNG acts as a catalyst for many of the anticipated changes in the wider gas market.
The new gas order can bring dividends for gas security, although there is the risk of a hard landing for gas markets in the s if uncertainty over the pace or direction of change deters new investments. Over the longer term, a larger and more liquid LNG market can compensate for reduced flexibility elsewhere in the energy system for example, lower fuel-switching capacity in some countries as coal-fired generation is retired.
Universal access to electricity remains elusive, and scaling up access to clean cooking facilities is even more challenging. There are some positive signs: Progress in India and Indonesia has been particularly impressive, and in sub-Saharan Africa electrification efforts outpaced population growth for the first time in Household air pollution from these sources is currently linked to 2. Policy attention to air quality is rising and global emissions of all the major pollutants fall in our projections, but their health impacts remain severe.
Ageing populations in many industrialised societies become more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution and urbanisation can also increase exposure to pollutants from traffic.
Premature deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution rise from 3 million today to more than 4 million in in the New Policies Scenario, even though pollution control technologies are applied more widely and other emissions are avoided because energy services are provided more efficiently or as with wind and solar without fuel combustion.
This outcome is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change, but there are a few positive signs. However, the speed of change in the power sector is not matched elsewhere: The Sustainable Development Scenario offers an integrated way to achieve a range of energy-related goals crucial for sustainable economic development: This scenario starts from a set of desired outcomes and considers what would be necessary to deliver them.
A key finding is that universal access to electricity and clean cooking can be reached without making this task any more challenging. Electric cars move into the mainstream quickly, but decarbonising the transport sector also requires much more stringent efficiency measures across the board, notably for road freight. The targets for renewables and efficiency that are defined in the Sustainable Development agenda are met or exceeded in this scenario; renewables and efficiency are the key mechanisms to drive forward the low-carbon transition and reduce pollutant emissions.
The provision of highly efficient appliances, combined with decentralised renewables, also play a major role in extending full access to electricity and clean cooking, especially in rural communities and isolated settlements that are hard to reach with the grid. As oil and coal fall back and renewables ramp up strongly, natural gas becomes the largest single fuel in the global mix in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Securing clear climate benefits from gas use depends on credible action to minimise leaks of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — to the atmosphere.
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Once US tight oil plateaus in the late s and non-OPEC production as a whole falls back, the market becomes increasingly reliant on the Middle East to balance the market.
Policies continue to support renewable electricity worldwide, increasingly through competitive auctions rather than feed-in tariffs, and the transformation of the power sector is amplified by millions of households, communities and businesses investing directly in distributed solar PV.